[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 190020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 18 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS CENTERED NEAR 29.3N 38.4W AT 18/2100
UTC MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 9 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.  THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  DANIELLE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SW
SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED.
THE CLOUD/ CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY ASYMMETRIC AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TURNS EWD AROUND
THE N PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 37W-39W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 36W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 41W/42W S OF
16N MOVING W 20-25 KT.  A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NEAR
10N ALONG THE AXIS.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF TRINIDAD FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 56W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE...REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL...IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 88W S OF 20N MOVING W 20-25 KT.  ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS INLAND WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 14N10W 10N16W 10N50W 10N80W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 15W-18W...AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 36W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG
30N FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS.  RESULTING SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ARE FROM THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE
MOSTLY TO THE REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
80W-82W DUE TO AIR MASS HEATING.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
22N77W.  UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 30-50 KNOTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ON THE SURFACE...STRONG EASTERLIES DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FROM
8N-18N BETWEEN 82W-85W...ALSO DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF T.S. EARL.
OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER TRINIDAD AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
55W-63W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS N OF
PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N63W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 15N BETWEEN 56W-70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 63W-80W.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N42W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N80W.  T.S. DANIELLE IS
ALSO IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N38W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 25N BETWEEN
34W-53W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING STRONG SW SHEAR AND IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING T.S. DANIELLE.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
FROM 25N25W TO 20N30W 15N50W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 600 NM OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING DEEP ELY FLOW S OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL
REGIONS.  A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 26N16W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE
CENTER.  THIS SYSYEM MAY BE LIMITING TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT.

$$
FORMOSA



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