[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 171436
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS LESS SYMMETRICAL...THERE IS STILL AN
EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS
ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 90 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS
LIKELY THEREAFTER. DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY
FIVE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. SOON DANIELLE
WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ACCELERATES DANIELLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL
MODEL KEEP THE HURRICANE NEARLY STATIONARY BY DAY 3 AND 4. I MIGHT
REGRET IT FOR NOT FOLLOWING THE GFS BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ACCELERATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE GFDL AND THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      17/1500Z 24.0N  40.2W    90 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 26.0N  40.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  41.0W    75 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 30.0N  40.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 32.0N  38.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 35.5N  36.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 38.0N  31.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 46.0N  21.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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