[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 161337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON 16 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 67.2W AT 16/0900 UTC
MOVING WNW 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  TSTMS CONTINUE NEAR EARL WITH THE CENTER
APPARENTLY TUCKED BETWEEN TWO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  HOWEVER
DISTINCT BANDING IS TEMPORARY WITH LIMITED ORGANIZATION.  RECON
WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON TO CHECK THE STATUS OF THE STORM.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 12.5N-16N BETWEEN 66.5W-70.5W.

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NEAR 17.2N 36.3W AT 16/0900 UTC MOVING NW
15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  FIRST VIS PICTURES SHOWS A CIRRUS-OBSCURED
EYE WITH IR IMAGES INDICATING A GENERAL COOLING TREND IN THE
EYEWALL TEMPS.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS YET IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF S
TO SW SHEAR FORECAST TO AFFECT DANIELLE AND HALT ITS
DEVELOPMENT.  NUMEROUS MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 39W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THIS IS THE SYSTEM THAT SPAWNED DANIELLE AND HAS CONTINUED
MOVING WESTWARD.  CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ ALONG WITH MODEL
FORECASTS ARE USED TO POSITION THE WAVE.  THIS IS A LOW-LATITUDE
WAVE AND ENHANCED SHOWERS FROM IT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WED/THU.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6.5N-9.5N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 79W S OF 19N MOVING W 20-25 KT.
POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF
10N E OF 80W COULD BE FROM THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W 13N25W 6N44W 7N58W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 19W-22W IS PROBABLY NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MAY BE ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS LATER TODAY.   OTHERWISE
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 46W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 75W...
COOL TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR CONTINUE FOR THE GULF COAST W OF A
CENTRAL GULF SURFACE TROUGH WITH  WITH NUMEROUS ALL-TIME RECORDS
SET FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF W OF 89W
N OF 26N..LEADING TO ONLY A SLOW MODERATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH MORE TYPICAL HEAT/HUMIDITY VALUES RETURNING TO THE NW
GULF STATES BY WED.  AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MIGRATING WESTWARD THRU THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SW TIP OF
GEORGIA SW TO 25N91W 20N94W. WEAK UPPER TROF S OF 25N ALONG 90W
ASSISTING ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF SURFACE TROF.  UPPER
HIGH IS OVER S-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL
CONVECTION FOR THE PENINSULA LIKELY TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP ELY FLOW IS N OF 16N W OF JAMAICA WITH A DISSIPATING CIRRUS
CANOPY FROM EVENING TSTMS OVER THE CUBA.  FARTHER S... MID-
OCEANIC TROF RUNS FROM NICARAGUA THRU E JAMAICA INTO THE SE
BAHAMAS.  TROF IS FUELING TSTMS OVER NICARAGUA TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY ASSIST DAYTIME CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.
TO THE E... UPPER RIDGE IS POKING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM THE
NE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 16N73W.  E TO SE FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING LIGHT SHEAR FOR EARL AT THIS TIME.  COMPUTER MODELS
INSIST THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE STORM BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO WEAKEN UPPER TROUGHS TOO QUICKLY.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 30N69W WITH TROF SOUTHWARD INTO THE SE
BAHAMAS.  COOL MID/UPPER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE TROF AXIS HAVE
ALLOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM N OF 24N BETWEEN 65W-71W.
UPPER RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR IS FROM 55W-65W... BEING
SQUISHED BY A DEEPENING DEEP-LAYER TROF IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.
TROF IS ALONG 31N31W 21N47W 27N55W AND IS THE MAIN PLAYER IN
DANIELLE'S FORECASTED TURN TO THE N.  A FEW TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF 28N40W NEAR AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW.  THE FAR E ATLC IS
BASICALLY COVERED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 18N55W RIDGING WESTWARD INTO THE NE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND EASTWARD TO JUST N OF DANIELLE NEAR 19N36W THEN ENE
INTO NW MAURITANIA NEAR 21N16W.  VERY MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PRESENT FROM 41W-60W WITH INCREASING VALUES IN THE E ATLC WITH
GENERAL ELY FLOW ALOFT.  PRESSURES ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER-THAN-
AVERAGE FOR MID-AUGUST.

$$
BLAKE

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