[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 160854
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

METEOSAT-8 INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE-INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW THAT
DANIELLE HAS ELONGATED A BIT IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH DIRECTION.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS CONTRACTED TO LESS THAN 10
NM AS THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT
T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KTS
FOR THE INITIAL TIME PERIOD.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG AT 310/15...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO MOVE
THE SYSTEM NORTH AND RECURVE DANIELLE TOWARD THE AZORES BEYOND 72
HOURS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE GROUP...
HOWEVER THE NOGAPS TRACK HAS MOVED IN WITH THE REST OF THE PACK.
THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS CONSENSUS...SO THE
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 24 HOUR...SO THE FORECAST
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KTS OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING FORECAST LATER AS DANIELLE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SHIPS AND GFDL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLE...SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REASONING.

FORECASTER STEWART/SISKO

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/0900Z 17.2N  36.3W    90 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.7N  37.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N  39.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.8N  40.2W    80 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 24.9N  40.7W    80 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 29.2N  40.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 32.8N  38.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 35.1N  33.7W    45 KT


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