[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 160007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 15 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N63.8W AT 15/2100 UTC
ABOUT 140 MILES... 230 KM...WEST OF GRENADA... MOVING WEST AT 20
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
63W-67W.  A FEEDER BAND IS FURTHER N FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
60W-64W.

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NEAR 15.4N 33.9W AT 15/2100 UTC MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT GUSTS 100 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  DANIELLE CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE
PICTURES.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 32W-36W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 74W S OF 19N MOVING WEST AT 20
KT.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 72W-76W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 17N1W 10N20W 6N47W 11N70W 10N80W.  NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
10N-14N BETWEEN 15W-18W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FURTHER S FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 17W-19W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 34W-37W...AND FROM 5N-6N
BETWEEN 46W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 75W...A 1019 MB LOW
IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N87W 19N93W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S GEORGIA AND N FLORIDA FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 80W-82W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT FROM 19N-24N.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 19N102W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF
OF MEXICO W OF 95W.  A VERY SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE CENTER.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA...AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-33N
BETWEEN 75W-85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. EARL IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 77W-81W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E
OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 79W-84W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS E OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N82W.
THIS SYSTEM IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IS E 0F 70W.
OUTFLOW FROM T.S. EARL IS EMBEDDED UNDER THE LARGER ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N53W.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W.  A SMALL 1019 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N30W.  A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 25N40W.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N15W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W.  CYCLONIC
FLOW IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 65W-75W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N33W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 25W-50W.  HURRICANE DANIELLE IS WITHIN 400 NM OF
ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANT SHEER FROM THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
HURRICANE DANIELLE IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENTLY OVER W
AFRICA AND THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 30N1W 20N30W
17N45W.

$$
FORMOSA


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