[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 151810 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 15 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

...CORRECTED FOR T.S. EARL MOTION...

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 12N63W AT 15/1700 UTC ABOUT
90 MILES W OF GRENADA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT GUSTS 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  RADAR FROM
MARTINIQUE SHOWS HINTS OF THE CENTER PASSING JUST N OF TOBAGO
WITH EARLIER NNW WINDS REPORTED IN TRINIDAD.  SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS BLOWN UP AROUND THE CENTER FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
59W-64W.

HURRICANE DANIELLE IS NEAR 15.0N 32.7W AT 15/1500 UTC MOVING W
13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.  DANIELLE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH AN EYE
BECOMING MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE CYCLONE HAS
ABOUT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY
CAP ITS INTENSITY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED FROM 68W S OF 17N TO 72W S OF 17N BASED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  MOVING W 20 KT.  WAVE HAS LITTLE
SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE PICTURES.  NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N12W 20N16W 5N36W 7N43W 10N60W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 9W-17W.  WILDLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 75W...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS CONCENTRATED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM TALLAHASSEE TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE .  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION  WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT....AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH ALONG 89W.   UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE FRONT HAS
WEAKENED WITH AXIS ABOUT 89W... THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH BREAKS
UP THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA
AND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF SAN ANDRES ISLANDS ASSISTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA... COSTA
RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 77W-81W.  DEEP EASTERLIES
ARE TO THE N OVER CUBA EASTWARD TO YUCATAN.  THE UPPER FLOW HAS
CHANGED A BIT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHIFTING TO SE CLOSER TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A RIDGE
AXIS BUTTS IN FROM THE W ATLC. THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
FEELING THE EFFECTS OF T.S. EARL AS IT MAKES IT WAY THROUGH THE
ISLANDS.  RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
STRONG MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 29N70W WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SSW
TO THE SE BAHAMAS.  COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN
ADDITION TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALLOWING ISOLATED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 62W-73W.  S OF 28N E OF 62W IS
CONTROLLED BY UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WITH LITTLE
ASSOCIATED WEATHER.  UPPER TROF/LOW IS DIVING INTO THE AREA
ALONG 31N36W 18N42W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 30N33W
26N47W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 18N53W WITH RIDGE AXIS WSW INTO THE E-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N70W.  UPPER HIGH OVER NEAR 23N0W IN MAURITANIA
W RIDGING EXTENDING W TO 19N34W.  DESPITE ABUNDANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY... PRESSURE REMAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
DEEP TROPICAL ATLC AS A WHOLE.

$$
JP/EH



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