[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin
Nashville EMWIN
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Aug 15 09:42:34 CDT 2004
WTNT75 KNHC 151442
SPFAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 15 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED AUG 18 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
14.0N 69.5W 52 2 X X 54 MKJS 185N 779W X X 16 8 24
15.3N 73.4W X 35 1 X 36 MWCG 193N 814W X X 1 20 21
16.5N 76.9W X 2 24 1 27 MUGM 200N 751W X X 9 3 12
SKPG 125N 717W 4 11 X X 15 MUCM 214N 779W X X 1 10 11
TNCC 122N 690W 20 1 X X 21 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 11 11
SVMG 110N 640W 6 X X X 6 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 14 14
TTPP 106N 614W 9 X X X 9 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 8 8
TTPT 112N 608W 99 X X X 99 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 11 11
TGPY 120N 618W 99 X X X 99 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 8 8
TVSV 131N 612W 83 X X X 83 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 2 2
TLPL 138N 610W 12 X X X 12 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 5 5
MDSD 185N 697W X 4 X X 4 MNPC 141N 834W X X X 3 3
MDCB 176N 714W X 20 2 X 22 MDPP 198N 707W X 1 1 X 2
MTPP 186N 724W X 8 7 X 15 MARATHON FL X X X 2 2
MTCA 183N 738W X 8 13 1 22 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2
MKJP 179N 768W X 1 22 3 26
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON
C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE
D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
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