[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 150834
SPFAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  73.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

45.5N  65.0W      20  3  X  X 23   EASTPORT ME       29  X  X  X 29
47.3N  59.9W       X 13  2  1 16   ST JOHN NB        24  1  X  X 25
48.4N  55.1W       X  2  8  2 12   MONCTON NB        17  5  X  X 22
OCEAN CITY MD      6  X  X  X  6   YARMOUTH NS       25  1  X  X 26
ATLANTIC CITY NJ  99  X  X  X 99   HALIFAX NS        12  7  1  X 20
NEW YORK CITY NY  99  X  X  X 99   SABLE ISLAND NS    1 10  1  1 13
MONTAUK POINT NY  99  X  X  X 99   SYDNEY NS          1 13  2  X 16
PROVIDENCE RI     77  X  X  X 77   EDDY POINT NS      2 14  1  X 17
NANTUCKET MA      44  X  X  X 44   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X 11  3  1 15
HYANNIS MA        58  X  X  X 58   BURGEO NFLD        X  8  5  1 14
BOSTON MA         68  X  X  X 68   ILE ST PIERRE      X  5  6  2 13
PORTLAND ME       50  X  X  X 50   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  1  6  4 11
BAR HARBOR ME     38  X  X  X 38   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  2  6  8

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
C FROM  2PM MON TO  2AM TUE
D FROM  2AM TUE TO  2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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