[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN 15 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY IS CENTERED NEAR 39.2N 73.8W AT 15/0600
UTC ABOUT 60 MILES E OF ATLANTIC CITY...MOVING NE AT 31 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CHARLEY IS LOOKING EXTRATROPICAL ON BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR
WITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM EARL IS CENTERED NEAR 11.4N 57.9W AT 15/0600 UTC
ABOUT 160 MILES SE OF BARBADOS... MOVING W 22 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NIGHT-TIME VIS ALONG WITH MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER IS
SOMEWHAT ON THE SW SIDE OF A CONVECTIVE BURST WITH SOME BANDS
NEAR AND E OF THE CENTER OF EARL... SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
MARTINIQUE RADAR SHOWS SOME BANDS FROM THE STORM APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE GETTING WINDIER AT BARBADOS
WITH A RECENT REPORT OF GUSTS OVER 20 MPH.  SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 56W-59W.

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS NOW A HURRICANE NEAR 14.2N 30.0W AT
15/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
DURING THE DAY DANIELLE HAS MAINTAINED VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH
AN EYE VISIBLE ON MICROWAVE IMAGES.  THE CYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24-36
HOURS OF TIME LEFT TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR LIKELY HALTS ITS DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE FAIRLY QUICK
INTENSIFICATION TREND...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN EYE
PRESENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY.  NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN
90 NM OF THE CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 17N MOVING W 20 KT.  WAVE HAS
LITTLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE PICTURES BUT IS CAUSING ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 66W-72W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 16N17W 8N32W 10N51W.   ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE "TAIL" OF DANIELLE FROM 9N29W TO 6.5N37W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC W OF 75W...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF CHARLEY... THE WEATHER HAS QUIETED DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE DYING DOWN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA & COASTAL WATERS.  THE
WESTERN GULF IS TASTING A BIT OF FALL WITH RECORD COLD... IN
SPOTS COLDEST FOR ALL OF AUGUST... BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE TO ABOUT MERIDA MEXICO.  THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE FRONT IS WEAKENING WITH AXIS ABOUT
90W... CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH PRESENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE NW BAHAMAS AND AN UPPER
HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS
IS LIKELY BUT THE REALLY STICKY AIR IS NOT LIKELY TO RETURN TIL
MIDWEEK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LOW IS JUST SE OF SAN ANDRES ISLANDS ASSISTING DIURNAL
CONVECTION S OF 10N.  DEEP EASTERLIES ARE TO THE N OVER CUBA
EASTWARD TO YUCATAN.  THE UPPER FLOW HAS CHANGED A BIT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A RIDGE AXIS
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W ATLC.  THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL LIKELY CONTROL HOW MUCH SHEAR EARL FEEL AS IT
ZIPS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUN/MON.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC E OF 75W...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE AREA WITH RIDGE AXIS N OF THE
AREA.  AT THE UPPER LEVELS... STRONG LOW IS NEAR 27N67W WITH
TROUGH SSW TO HISPANIOLA.  COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW IN ADDITION TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALLOWING ISOLATED
TSTMS TO DEVELOP FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 65W-75W.  S OF 25N E OF
60W IS CONTROLLED BY UPPER RIDGING IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH
LITTLE ASSOCIATED WEATHER.  UPPER TROF/LOW IS DIVING INTO THE
AREA ALONG 32N36W 25N41W.  THIS IS THE FEATURE THAT IS GOING TO
WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGING AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO RECURVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLC.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF TROF TO AFRICA.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH IS NEAR 18N51W WITH RIDGE AXIS WSW INTO THE E-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.  RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS ENE TO NW SAHARA NEAR 22N16W.
DEEP EASTERLIES ARE S OF THE RIDGE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL CYCLONES... PRESSURE REMAINS
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC AS A WHOLE.

$$
BLAKE

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