[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT43 KNHC 150245
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

CHARLEY IS JUST BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY
EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAINING BEING THE RELATIVELY
SMALL WIND CORE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS POSSESSED SINCE IT FIRST
FORMED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1012 MB ARE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  CHARLEY SHOULD BECOME
COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HR OR LESS WITH WINDS LIKELY
WEAKENING BELOW GALE FORCE IN 24 HR AT THE MOST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/30.  CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN
A FRONTAL ZONE IN 72-96 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0300Z 37.9N  74.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 40.8N  71.6W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 44.1N  66.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 46.2N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 47.3N  57.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 49.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     19/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM


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