[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT44 KNHC 140859
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AND 2.5.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KTS.

DANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS
WEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT
WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST TO THE
LEFT OF THE CONCENSUS.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE
THEREAFTER...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      14/0900Z 13.2N  25.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 13.6N  27.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N  30.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 14.9N  32.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N  34.4W    60 KT
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 18.7N  38.4W    65 KT
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N  42.2W    65 KT
120HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N  44.6W    65 KT


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