[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 140857
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  80.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

39.0N  75.5W      25  7  1  X 33   NEW YORK CITY NY   7 20  X  X 27
43.5N  72.0W       X 18  4  X 22   MONTAUK POINT NY   1 19  2  X 22
47.0N  67.0W       X  X 13  X 13   PROVIDENCE RI      X 18  3  X 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL  99  X  X  X 99   NANTUCKET MA       X 11  5  X 16
JACKSONVILLE FL   99  X  X  X 99   HYANNIS MA         X 13  5  X 18
SAVANNAH GA       52  X  X  X 52   BOSTON MA          X 16  4  X 20
CHARLESTON SC     79  X  X  X 79   PORTLAND ME        X 11  8  X 19
MYRTLE BEACH SC   72  X  X  X 72   BAR HARBOR ME      X  4 12  X 16
WILMINGTON NC     59  X  X  X 59   EASTPORT ME        X  1 13  X 14
MOREHEAD CITY NC  39  X  X  X 39   ST JOHN NB         X  X 11  X 11
CAPE HATTERAS NC  25  1  X  X 26   MONCTON NB         X  X  8  X  8
NORFOLK VA        38  1  X  X 39   YARMOUTH NS        X  1  9  X 10
OCEAN CITY MD     26  6  X  X 32   HALIFAX NS         X  X  5  X  5
ATLANTIC CITY NJ  17 13  X  X 30   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  2  X  2

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
C FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
D FROM  2AM MON TO  2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER AVILA


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