[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 132044
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

33.9N  79.0W      23  7  X  X 30   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  9  4 13
38.5N  76.3W       X 19  6  X 25   HYANNIS MA         X  X 10  4 14
43.5N  72.0W       X  X 14  2 16   BOSTON MA          X  X 12  3 15
W PALM BEACH FL    8  X  X  X  8   PORTLAND ME        X  X 10  5 15
FT PIERCE FL      39  X  X  X 39   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  4  9 13
COCOA BEACH FL    72  X  X  X 72   EASTPORT ME        X  X  1 10 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL  76  1  X  X 77   ST JOHN NB         X  X  1  9 10
JACKSONVILLE FL   40  X  X  X 40   MONCTON NB         X  X  X  9  9
SAVANNAH GA       32  X  X  X 32   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  1  9 10
CHARLESTON SC     34  1  X  X 35   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X  7  7
MYRTLE BEACH SC   23  7  1  X 31   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X  3  3
WILMINGTON NC     10 18  X  X 28   SYDNEY NS          X  X  X  4  4
MOREHEAD CITY NC   2 21  1  X 24   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  5  5
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X 17  3  1 21   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X  3  3
NORFOLK VA         X 21  4  X 25   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X  2  2
OCEAN CITY MD      X 13 10  X 23   MARCO ISLAND FL   99  X  X  X 99
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  8 14  X 22   FT MYERS FL       99  X  X  X 99
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  3 17  1 21   VENICE FL         99  X  X  X 99
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X 15  1 16   TAMPA FL          68  X  X  X 68
PROVIDENCE RI      X  X 13  3 16   CEDAR KEY FL       5  X  X  X  5

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
C FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
D FROM  2PM SUN TO  2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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WWWW
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