[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT75 KNHC 132034
SPFAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE  8.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  46.2 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST MON AUG 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

10.3N  52.2W      50  2  X  X 52   TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  2 15 17
11.1N  55.7W       1 34  2  X 37   TAPA 171N 618W     X  X  1 12 13
12.1N  59.1W       X  3 25  X 28   TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  X 13 13
TNCC 122N 690W     X  X  X  4  4   TNCM 181N 631W     X  X  X 10 10
SVMG 110N 640W     X  X  1 13 14   TISX 177N 648W     X  X  X 14 14
TTPP 106N 614W     X  X 10  7 17   TIST 183N 650W     X  X  X 11 11
TTPT 112N 608W     X  X 16  5 21   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X 12 12
TGPY 120N 618W     X  X 11 11 22   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  5  5
TBPB 131N 595W     X  1 24  3 28   MDCB 176N 714W     X  X  X  2  2
TVSV 131N 612W     X  X 15 10 25   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  X 10 10
TLPL 138N 610W     X  X 15 10 25   ST CROIX VI        X  X  X 14 14
TFFF 146N 610W     X  X 10 13 23   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  X 11 11
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  5 16 21   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  X 10 10
80400 157N 636W    X  X  X 21 21   PONCE PR           X  X  X 12 12

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SAT TO  2AM SUN
C FROM  2AM SUN TO  2PM SUN
D FROM  2PM SUN TO  2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART


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