[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

AXNT20 KNHC 131806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI 13 AUG 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE CHARLEY CENTERED NEAR 26.0N 82.4W...OR 50 MILES SW OF
FORT MYERS FLORIDA...AT 13/1800 UTC MOVING NNE 17 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 953 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  CHARLEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED
JUST TO THE E OF THE CENTER WITH CIRRUS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SYMMETRIC STORM
WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE. TSTMS ARE SPREADING N OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DEVELOPED AT 13/1500 UTC AT 12.2N
22.7W...OR 200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...MOVING W 12 KTS.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
1009 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
40 KT.  SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. VISIBLE
IMAGERY INDICATES AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG COVER BROAD AREA
FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 17W-30W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS NOW TD FOUR.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W/42W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME A TD TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 43W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 55W/56W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
WEAK INVERTED CURVATURE OBSERVED OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 20N10W 14N19W 8N33W 10N62W. NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MID/UPPER TROF EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE N
GULF ALONG 88W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM ACROSS CENTRAL GA
NEAR 32N83W 26N90W TO 22N95W. THIS IS THE TROF THAT IS PULLING
THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE AND HURCN CHARLEY FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD
TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND ALONG THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST IS PRODUCING FAST MOVING TSTMS ACROSS
NE FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND INTO S AND N CAROLINA.

BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER W MEXICO IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC...
ELONGATED MID-UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE BEYOND 32N73W AND SW OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN TO 10N83W.  CONFLUENT FLOW TO THE E IS PRODUCING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SURFACE AIR TO 70W.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N64W...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-20N
BETWEEN 63W-70W.

REMAINDER OF SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 44W-66W
WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N48N.  UPPER HIGH
DOMINATES THE EAST ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N34W WITH ASSOCIATED
FLOW E OF 45W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS
PRESENT N OF 20N E OF 40W.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG 17N CONTROLS THE AREA WITH LITTLE SHEAR AND
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW.

$$
WALLACE



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net