[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT73 KNHC 131516
SPFAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.8 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

31.4N  81.5W      48  6  X  X 54   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  1  9 10
35.8N  79.2W       X 25  6  X 31   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X  8  8
40.2N  76.8W       X  X 16  3 19   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X  9  9
MARATHON FL       15  X  X  X 15   BOSTON MA          X  X  X 10 10
W PALM BEACH FL    3  X  X  X  3   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X  9  9
FT PIERCE FL      12  X  X  X 12   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  6  6
COCOA BEACH FL    30  X  X  X 30   EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  4  4
DAYTONA BEACH FL  54  X  X  X 54   ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  3  3
JACKSONVILLE FL   58  1  X  X 59   MONCTON NB         X  X  X  2  2
SAVANNAH GA       33 17  X  X 50   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  3  3
CHARLESTON SC      6 34  X  X 40   KEY WEST FL       99  X  X  X 99
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X 29  1  1 31   MARCO ISLAND FL   86  X  X  X 86
WILMINGTON NC      X 19  5  X 24   FT MYERS FL       86  X  X  X 86
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  8  9  X 17   VENICE FL         91  X  X  X 91
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  3  9  1 13   TAMPA FL          83  X  X  X 83
NORFOLK VA         X  3 15  X 18   CEDAR KEY FL      71  X  X  X 71
OCEAN CITY MD      X  X 13  3 16   ST MARKS FL       35  1  X  X 36
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  9  6 15   APALACHICOLA FL   14  X  X  X 14
NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  5  9 14   PANAMA CITY FL     4  X  X  X  4
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  1 10 11   GULF 29N 85W      14  X  X  X 14

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SAT TO  8PM SAT
C FROM  8PM SAT TO  8AM SUN
D FROM  8AM SUN TO  8AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER LAWRENCE


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