[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTUS82 KTBW 122212
HLSTBW

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-130100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
538 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...INTENSIFYING HURRICANE CHARLEY MAY BE A DANGEROUS THREAT TO THE
SUNCOAST FRIDAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF BAYPORT...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA:

  CHARLOTTE
  DE SOTO
  HERNANDO
  HILLSBOROUGH
  LEE
  MANATEE
  PASCO
  PINELLAS
  SARASOTA

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO BAYPORT...CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND TAMPA BAY.


A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA:

  CITRUS
  LEVY

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BAYPORT TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.


AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA:

   HARDEE
   HIGHLANDS
   POLK
   SUMTER

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2
NORTH...81.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA.  CHARLEY WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF.
CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT.  CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 AND THE 1944 HURRICANE EACH OF
WHICH MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF FORT MYERS...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921
HURRICANE WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.

A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE TO SOUTH OF WHERE CHARLEY
MAKES LANDFALL.


...WIND IMPACTS...
CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS IN THE
INNER EYEWALL PERHAPS AT LEAST 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...NO MATTER WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES...CURRENT FORECAST DATA
SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH WILL AFFECT ALL
AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN FRIDAY
EARLY SATURDAY.

...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS
POSSIBLE...

...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED NEAR WHERE THE
STORM MAKES LANDFALL.  HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS
BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES
WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO
THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER
LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. MUCH OF THE GLASS IN HIGH RISE
OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE
DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL
LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CITRUS GROVES...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES...MOST COMMON WHERE
THE GROUND IS SATURATED.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST
OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9PM EDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
DANGEROUS FLOOD. HEED ALL EVACUATION ORDERS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT OR
MILITARY PERSONNEL.

$$

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