[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT42 KNHC 121431
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BONNIE
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.  THE CENTER PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE NOAA
BUOY 42039 EARLIER TODAY PRODUCING GUSTS TO 47 KNOTS AN A 1002.7 MB
PRESSURE. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED AND IT IS IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO
EXTRATROPICAL. A PORTION OF THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE CENTER IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ABOUT 24 KNOTS.
ONCE THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AND
BONNIE SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO
AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/1500Z 29.5N  85.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 32.5N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 37.5N  78.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 44.0N  73.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 50.0N  68.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL


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