[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[Nashville EMWIN]

WTNT72 KNHC 120845
SPFAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

35.1N  81.1W      30  5  X  X 35   EASTPORT ME        X  X  5  4  9
40.8N  76.5W       X 17  4  X 21   ST JOHN NB         X  X  3  5  8
47.0N  72.0W       X  X 12  2 14   MONCTON NB         X  X  2  6  8
JACKSONVILLE FL   13  X  X  X 13   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  3  3  6
SAVANNAH GA       26  1  X  X 27   HALIFAX NS         X  X  1  4  5
CHARLESTON SC     21  1  X  X 22   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X  2  2
MYRTLE BEACH SC   14  6  X  X 20   SYDNEY NS          X  X  X  4  4
WILMINGTON NC      8  8  X  X 16   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  4  4
MOREHEAD CITY NC   2  9  1  X 12   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  X  5  5
CAPE HATTERAS NC   1  8  1  X 10   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  X  4  4
NORFOLK VA         1 17  1  X 19   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  X  2  2
OCEAN CITY MD      X 16  2  X 18   CEDAR KEY FL       9  X  X  X  9
ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X 14  4  X 18   ST MARKS FL       59  X  X  X 59
NEW YORK CITY NY   X 11  6  1 18   APALACHICOLA FL   70  X  X  X 70
MONTAUK POINT NY   X  4  9  X 13   PANAMA CITY FL    77  X  X  X 77
PROVIDENCE RI      X  3 10  X 13   PENSACOLA FL      39  X  X  X 39
NANTUCKET MA       X  1  7  1  9   MOBILE AL          4  X  X  X  4
HYANNIS MA         X  1  9  X 10   GULF 29N 85W      59  X  X  X 59
BOSTON MA          X  2 10  1 13   GULF 29N 87W      99  X  X  X 99
PORTLAND ME        X  1 10  2 13   GULF 28N 89W      99  X  X  X 99
BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  7  3 10

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1AM FRI TO  1PM FRI
C FROM  1PM FRI TO  1AM SAT
D FROM  1AM SAT TO  1AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER JARVINEN


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