[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151750
TNZ000-ALZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of middle and eastern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 151750Z - 152045Z

SUMMARY...An area of heavier snow rates, occasionally approaching 1
inch per hour, may be maintained east-northeastward across portions
of middle and eastern Tennessee through 2-4 PM CST, before gradually
diminishing through early evening.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level speed maximum propagating across northern
Mississippi is forecast to reach the Cumberland Plateau by early
evening.  This  still appears associated with an area of enhanced
mid/upper forcing for ascent, which might be maintained through the
20-22Z time frame while overspreading portions of middle through
eastern Tennessee.  Thereafter, frontogenetic forcing is forecast to
generally weaken across the Tennessee Valley through southern
Appalachians vicinity, yielding diminishing precipitation rates.
Until then, it appears that the area of enhanced lift will include
upward vertical motion maximized within the favorably cold mid-level
layer (centered around or above 600 mb) for large dendritic ice
crystal growth.  It appears this may remain strong enough to support
continuing potential for occasional heavy snow rates up to around 1
inch per hour, where lower/mid tropospheric profiles are maintained
at or below freezing (roughly north of the 0 C isotherm at 859 mb).

..Kerr.. 01/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34978743 35118584 35718402 36408364 36298463 36048579
            35848708 34978743
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