[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 082145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082144
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-082345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...Southeast AR into northern MS and southwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082144Z - 082345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will remain possible through early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms have developed this afternoon
along the northern periphery of returning low-level moisture from
southeast AR into northern MS and southwest TN. Low/mid 60s F
dewpoints spreading northward into a region where temperatures have
already warmed well into the 70s F has resulted in MLCAPE rising to
1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear of 40-50 kt and elongated hodographs
will remain supportive of supercell structures, with large hail as
the primary short-term threat. Coverage of the threat will likely
remain rather isolated, but one or two cells may be capable of
producing hail in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range, as recently noted
east of Memphis. Watch issuance is unlikely, unless coverage of
hail-producing supercells becomes greater than currently
anticipated.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34599199 35489005 35928899 36078804 35898759 35618753
            35198785 34838840 34189033 33729192 33879235 34599199
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