[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061916 COR
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-062130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower MS and TN Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061916Z - 062130Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential
this afternoon. A watch issuance is possible for parts of the area
in the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a band of
increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus along a
northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-stationary surface front/wind
shift from central AR into southeast OK. Isolated convective
initiation has recently occurred along this front. Ahead of this
activity, low-level lapse rates continue to diurnally steepen amid
rich pre-frontal boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 70s surface
dewpoints). While large-scale ascent is minimal across the area,
continued heating /destabilization amid the low-level frontal
circulation should support continued convective initiation along the
wind shift during the next hour or two given minimal warm-sector
convective inhibition. Additional convective initiation is possible
along differential heating zones over the warm sector as well.

A belt of moderate northwesterly midlevel flow over the frontal zone
(around 30 kt of effective shear) will support loosely organized
storms once updrafts become established/sustained. Locally damaging
gusts and marginally severe hail could accompany this initial
activity. With time, increasing outflow generation amid the
moist/well-mixed boundary layer should favor convective clustering
with southeastward extent. The primary concern with this convective
evolution will be severe gusts -- especially with any localized
upscale growth that evolves. Convective and environmental trends are
being monitored for a possible watch issuance this afternoon.

..Weinman/Kerr.. 09/06/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34329382 34099413 33669423 33319412 32979397 32719367
            32579330 32549269 32639169 33028956 33278864 33518820
            33858792 34698781 35168796 35458840 35548898 35518965
            35409036 35299094 35109176 34639314 34329382
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