[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072131
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-072330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern TN...western NC...far northern
GA...and northern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072131Z - 072330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail remain
possible during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar data shows several loosely
organized convective clusters tracking south-southeastward
along/immediately behind a large-scale outflow boundary draped
across eastern TN into western NC. Around 30 kt of 0-6 km shear (per
regional VWP) oriented parallel to the outflow boundary will
continue supporting some organization of these clusters as they
continue southward given marginal surface-based inflow. Locally
damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are possible with the
stronger cores for the next few hours, though a tendency for
convection to be undercut by the larger outflow boundary and the
eventual loss of daytime heating should generally limit the severe
threat.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/07/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35968464 36018397 36078321 36108264 36188210 36228166
            36208124 36018076 35618064 35248090 34758291 34878546
            35108574 35668582 35898561 35968534 35968464
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