[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 031002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031001
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern MS/AL...western into Middle
TN...western KY...far southeast MO...and far southern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 031001Z - 031230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 13-14z/7-8 am
CST across portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys.
Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible through
midday/early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary boundary is evident in surface
analysis extending from west-central TN toward the TN/KY border
vicinity north of Nashville. Meanwhile, the warm front, demarcating
mid-60s F surface dewpoints from upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints,
is arcing from near Memphis into east-central MS (between Starkville
and Tupelo) and central AL. Large-scale ascent ejecting into east
TX, as the mid/upper trough becomes more negatively tilted as of
10z, will aid in deepening of the surface low over central AR as it
tracks northeast toward the Lower OH Valley through midday. As this
occurs, the warm front will lift northward, allowing for
destabilization of the airmass downstream from WW 59 across parts of
northern MS into western and Middle TN, and eventually northward
toward the lower OH River.

Ongoing precipitation across parts of western/Middle TN/southeast
MO/western KY and vicinity lends to some uncertainty with respect to
the northern extent of severe potential through the morning, and
possible watch issuance. While a relative minimum in severe activity
may exist in the short term, as the warm front surges northward
through mid-morning, forecast soundings in addition to CAMs and
deterministic guidance suggest organized convection will develop
northeast from near the MS River through western KY.

Where the more moist and unstable airmass evolves, sufficient
low-level instability, in the presence of intense low-level shear
(aided by a 50-60 kt 850 mb jet), will support organized linear
convection with perhaps embedded or semi-discrete cells. Damaging
gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with this activity
through midday/early afternoon. A downstream watch will likely be
needed by around 13z-14z.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 03/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   36008974 36938956 37368926 37688873 37868807 37918734
            37868678 37748655 37208638 36328636 35068661 34518683
            34178714 33848781 33598840 33638940 33788978 34038992
            36008974
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