[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 252146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252145
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-252315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Arkansas...southern
Missouri...into western Tennessee/Kentucky.

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 252145Z - 252315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...New thunderstorm development and ongoing supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts are likely this
evening. A Watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the mid to lower MS Valley,
broad-scale ascent from an approaching upper-low and speed max was
beginning to impinge on the northern fringes of a broad warm sector.
Late afternoon visible satellite imagery showed cumulus towers
slowly deepening along a wind shift boundary demarcating the
northern extent of the warm and very moist air mass. Mid to upper
70s dewpoints and 90s F surface temperatures beneath steep mid-level
lapse rates are supporting large buoyancy with 3500-4500 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Atop the unstable boundary layer, 40-50 kt of effective
shear observed from area VADs will support storm reorganization into
supercells and linear clusters. With substantial instability and
vertical shear, large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be likely with severe storms that form this afternoon/evening.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely needed.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 06/25/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   36199117 36619018 37108876 37258825 37028688 35768769
            35068892 34709022 34449100 34489123 36199117
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