[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151840
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-152115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of TN...northeastern MS...northern
AL/GA...and far southwestern NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151840Z - 152115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may exist with stronger
thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance will probably not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed along/near a weak
front/surface trough draped across northern MS into western/middle
TN. Additional convection is also occurring across parts of the
southern Appalachians. Even though this activity is occurring on the
northern side of a westerly mid-level jet present across the
Southeast, around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear estimated on
recent VWPs from KOHX should allow for modest updraft organization.
Stronger deep-layer shear is estimated by mesoanalysis farther south
into northern MS/AL/GA, closer to the mid-level jet axis. Diurnal
heating of a moist low-level airmass and modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates are supporting around 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Multicell clusters capable of producing both isolated severe
hail and damaging winds should be the main convective mode and
threats, respectively. But, a supercell or two may also occur with
southward extent, where deep-layer shear exceeds 35 kt. At this
point, the overall severe threat should remain fairly isolated this
afternoon. Accordingly, watch issuance will probably not be needed.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35088982 35888887 36088684 35768473 35248361 34828407
            34128632 33498813 34318976 35088982
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