[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241907
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...Western Kentucky and Western/Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241907Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may produce locally damaging winds. A watch is
unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown an uptick in intensity
with a line of storms tracking southeastward along remnant outflow
from morning convection. Radar velocity indicates 55-58 kts located
above 2 kft along the northern flank of the line. Localized damaging
winds will be possible as this line continues southeastward. Given
relatively weak flow aloft, it is uncertain how long this threat
will continue. However, storms are tracking into very hot and
unstable air with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg. This may allow
storms to maintain intensity as they track into western Tennessee.
Trends are being monitored.

..Thornton.. 07/24/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36899018 37198999 37428966 37498945 37488874 37388843
            37128807 36878785 36698778 36378784 36148796 35928807
            35818834 35748867 35698910 35688934 35778964 35888985
            36149012 36519028 36899018
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