[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181723
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-181900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023

Areas affected...Southern IL...southeastern MO...southwestern
KY...and far northwestern TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

Valid 181723Z - 181900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind threat continues with an
east-southeastward-moving MCS/bowing complex this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KPAH shows a well-organized
MCS/bowing complex tracking east-southeastward at around 50 kt over
the lower OH River Valley this afternoon. This activity is
associated with an expanding trailing stratiform region and a
low/mid-level rear-inflow jet with speeds near 80 kt (per KPAH
radar). Ahead of the MCS, filtered heating beneath a cirrus canopy
continues to destabilize inflow for the system given upper 70s/lower
80s dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. The
increasingly strong surface-based instability, coupled with around
40 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge
gust front (per regional VWP), should support the maintenance or
perhaps strengthening of the MCS. As a result, severe gusts up to 75
mph are possible as it continues east-southeastward this afternoon.

..Weinman.. 07/18/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37238967 37088979 36988997 36849003 36688997 36538973
            36408939 36328905 36308875 36288849 36408823 36728801
            37168793 37578794 37868815 37958842 37998877 38028910
            38038936 38018953 37878963 37528953 37238967
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