[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091751
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-091915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern AR...western TN...northwestern
MS...and northeastern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091751Z - 091915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across
parts of eastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, western
Tennessee, and northwestern Mississippi. A watch may be required in
the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Convection is ongoing along a surface boundary across
western Tennessee. Additionally convection is reinvigorating with
some areas of cooling cloud tops along the remnant outflow boundary
from morning convection across eastern Arkansas. Ahead of the
boundary is a very moist troposphere with precipitable water values
near 2 in across northwest Mississippi. Deep-layer shear is
relatively weak across the region, except for near the boundary
across western Tennessee, where the 0-8 km shear is a bit stronger.
Where the shear is weaker, multicell modes are expected to dominate,
and a loosely-organized MCS may develop later. Across western
Tennessee, some more organized cells are possible before cold pools
congeal. Given the moist troposphere and overall weak deep-layer
shear, the primary threat is expected to be damaging gusts from
downdrafts with high precipitation loading. Trends will be
monitored, and a watch may be issued in the next hour or two.

..Supinie/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   32429183 33029202 34069182 35189189 35479190 35669174
            35849124 36089056 36158952 36078865 35888810 35508781
            34988800 34238854 33768900 33048956 32489023 32289105
            32429183
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