[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011646
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011646Z - 011815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may produce strong/locally damaging
gusts and hail through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters have developed across the region
early this afternoon amid weakening boundary-layer inhibition.
Surface dewpoints in the 70s amid mid 80s to low 90s temperatures
are resulting in a corridor of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional
heating during the afternoon will result in some additional increase
in instability. While moderate to strong instability will reside
over the region, vertical shear is expected to remain modest, with
effective shear magnitudes generally around 20 kt forecast. This
will limit longevity of organized updrafts, though degree of
instability should support at least briefly vigorous thunderstorms.
The lack of stronger midlevel flow and deep-layer shear may preclude
upscale development, but the parameter space should be sufficient
for thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for strong/locally damaging
gusts and perhaps hail with the stronger cores. If a sufficient cold
pool can be generated, potential for a bowing cluster would
increase, but confidence in this scenario is low. A severe
thunderstorm watch may be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

..Leitman/Grams.. 07/01/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36598473 34578555 34428644 34518771 34798813 35478825
            36398818 36648792 36668602 36598473
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