[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 310006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310006
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri...southern
Illinois...western Kentucky...and far southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 310006Z - 310500Z

SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to locally heavy mixed precipitation
may continue for another few hours. Rates will gradually diminish
from west to east through this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2350 UTC, regional radar imagery showed several
bands of moderate winter precipitation ongoing across portions of
eastern MO and southern IL, into western KY and far southwest IN.
Driven by subtle height falls beneath a passing vortmax within the
broader southwesterly flow aloft, forcing is expected to gradually
weaken this evening as the upper-level vortmax shifts to the
northeast. Radar depictions have already shown a slight weakening
trend in reflectivity, suggesting precipitation rates will continue
to lessen through the remainder of the evening with northeastward
extent. However, localized banding structures from weak upright
buoyancy (MUCAPE < 100 J/kg) may continue to support periods of
moderate to locally heavy sleet rates near 0.25-0.3 in/hr for the
next few hours. Light freezing rain may also accompany sleet at
times beneath the stronger bands, but a deeper and colder boundary
layer should favor ice nucleation and limit any potential freezing
rain accretion this evening. The highest confidence in moderate to
locally heavy sleet will remain farther southwest where
low/mid-level frontogenesis and temperature advection remain locally
stronger.

..Lyons.. 01/31/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36768755 36468869 36268964 35909072 36089146 36659121
            36969093 37778940 38408675 37868565 37058604 36768755
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