[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 161523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161523
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-161730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern Arkansas...northwestern
Mississippi...and western Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 37...

Valid 161523Z - 161730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across roughly the eastern half of
Tornado Watch 37, across the Mid Mississippi and into the Tennessee
Valley.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a frontal band of convection
moving into roughly the eastern half of the watch, with
other/warm-advection-driven storms ongoing from northwestern
Tennessee and western Kentucky, east-northeastward along the
Kentucky warm front.

The warm front, and the ongoing precipitation near it, currently
demarcate a southern fringe to greater tornado risk, with
appreciable northward expansion of this risk appearing unlikely due
to persistent/heavy rain that is ongoing.

Farther south, with the frontal convective band, storms have
remained sub-severe recently.  However, as modest heating allows
some destabilization to occur, severe potential may ramp up a bit
over the next 1 to 2 hours, into western Tennessee and adjacent
northwestern Mississippi.

..Goss.. 02/16/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33279214 35059065 36318859 36658684 34968873 33679071
            33279214
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