[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 092304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092303
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023

Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Mississippi...extreme
northwest Alabama...middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

Valid 092303Z - 100030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 715. All
severe hazards remain possible into the evening. A locally higher
tornado threat may materialize along or just north of the TN/AL
border if discrete, dominant supercells can develop.

DISCUSSION...A mix of embedded supercells and linear storm modes
persist ahead of a cold front across middle TN into northern MS.
These storms are approaching the eastern most bounds of Tornado
Watch 714 and are entering Tornado Watch 715. Ahead of the ongoing
band of storms, discrete convection is trying to mature, with a
supercell structure trying to materialize in the Tishomingo County,
MS area. The northeast extent of the better surface-based
instability extends into middle TN to extreme northwest AL area,
where mesoanalysis has shown an appreciable increase in the size and
curvature of low-level hodographs (with effective SRH approaching
300 m2/s2 in spots). As such, any discrete storms that can mature
into sustained supercells may support a locally higher tornado
threat, and a strong tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 12/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   34308901 36178665 37378515 37418452 37108429 36298485
            35448561 34838624 34498678 34318764 34308901
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