[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 241709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241708
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-241945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2023

Areas affected...Middle/Eastern TN...Western NC...Southwestern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241708Z - 241945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging gusts
are possible from Middle TN into western NC and southwestern VA this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis and satellite imagery shows a
southward/southeastward progressing outflow boundary from north
Middle TN eastward into northwest NC and then back northeastward
across western VA. Cumulus continues to increase in the vicinity of
this outflow as the downstream airmass heats and destabilizes. A
remnant MCV is also apparent in visible imagery over WV. Combination
of these features with additional heating/destabilization is
expected to result in thunderstorm development from middle TN
northeastward into southwest/western VA this afternoon.

Upper 80s/low 90s surface temperatures combined with upper 60s/low
70s dewpoints will help foster moderate to strong buoyancy, with
afternoon MLCAPE likely reaching 2500 J/kg from middle TN into
northern GA. Slightly lower buoyancy closer to 1000-1500 J/kg is
anticipated farther north and east into western NC and
southwest/western VA. In contrast to this strong buoyancy, vertical
shear will be weak, with effective bulk shear likely staying below
20 kt. This lack of stronger shear will limit storm organization,
with a multicell mode anticipated. Even so, a few water-loaded
downdrafts capable of damaging gusts are possible across the region
this afternoon.

..Mosier/Grams.. 08/24/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   36208539 36778313 37278138 37608003 37477958 36817991
            35568151 35048311 34878398 34908500 35578595 36208539
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