[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131653
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi River Valley into the Tennessee
Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131653Z - 131900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An MCS moving across the mid-Mississippi River Valley will
likely see new re-intensification through the early afternoon hours.
This will pose a threat for damaging to severe winds downstream.
Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A lingering MCS moving out of northern AR has gradually
become outflow dominant per KNQA radar imagery over the past few
hours. However, over the past 30-60 minutes new convective towers
are noted in IR imagery and lightning data, developing along/just
behind the gust front as it approaches the MS River. Further
re-development and/or re-intensification of the line appears
probable through the early afternoon as the MCS approaches a
regional buoyancy maximum over northern MS to western TN (MLCAPE
values between 2000-3000 J/kg and rising as temperatures warm into
the low 90s). Deep-layer flow over the region is meager with the
KNQA VWP and 12 UTC BNA sounding sampling mid-level winds between
20-30 knots. This suggests that storm organization/longevity may be
limited, but convectively-augmented (and poorly-sampled)
mid/upper-level winds in the vicinity of the attendant MCV over
northeast AR and the MO bootheel may support adequate deep-layer
shear for a more organized/persistent severe threat. While
confidence in favorable kinematics is somewhat low, a downstream
damaging wind threat appears likely across western to middle TN and
adjacent portions of KY, MS, and AL given the ample buoyancy. Trends
will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

..Moore/Guyer.. 08/13/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35399021 35818975 36438950 36988953 37358666 36918618
            35318637 34918673 34788744 34908968 35009007 35399021
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