[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121253
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1962
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the OH Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121253Z - 121430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will
persist into mid morning. Some portions of the region may see a
greater severe risk later today.

DISCUSSION...At 1245 UTC, a broad arc of convection is ongoing from
central/southern IN into far southern IL and southeast MO. The
southwestern storms are associated with a remnant MCS and related
outflow that earlier produced wind damage near St. Louis. Moderate
downstream buoyancy may support an isolated damaging-wind threat as
storms move into western KY/TN, though widespread cloudiness will
tend to delay stronger destabilization and steepening of low-level
lapse rates.

Storms across central/southern IN within a low-level warm advection
regime are somewhat more intense and less influenced by outflow.
Mid/upper-level flow and deep-layer shear is also somewhat stronger
across IN/OH compared to areas farther southwest, and a marginal
elevated supercell or two will be possible with a threat of isolated
large hail and locally damaging gusts through mid morning.

Near-term watch issuance is considered unlikely, due to the isolated
nature of the ongoing threats. Depending on trends regarding diurnal
destabilization and potential transition from elevated to
surface-based convection, portions of this region may see a greater
severe threat later today.

..Dean/Edwards.. 08/12/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON   37279069 37178952 37808771 38658687 39978639 40118528
            39818460 39448426 39008423 38258471 37438562 36458687
            36048813 35978921 36059031 36169055 36409083 37279069
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