[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091622
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-091815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1914
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023

Areas affected...Portions of western/Middle Tennessee...northern
Mississippi and Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091622Z - 091815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
hail may increase along an effective warm front. A watch is possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection in western Tennessee has shown some
signs of increasing intensity along its southwestern flank where
temperatures continue to rise into the mid 80s F. This is along an
effective warm front from central Arkansas into northern
Mississippi. More cellular activity has also been noted in northeast
Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, and northwest Mississippi within the
warm advection zone. The main concern for the early afternoon will
be the potential for tornadoes along the warm front as the boundary
layer continues to destabilize. Cool temperatures north of the
boundary mean storms will have to move along it for an appreciable
threat. Damaging winds also appear possible this afternoon.
Temperatures into Middle Tennessee do continue to rise, but
continued influx of cirrus from convection to the west increases
uncertainty as to how much destabilization will occur. That being
said, the wind damage threat may remain more isolated along the warm
front. For more discrete cells, large hail (up to 2 inches) would
also be possible. Trends will need to be monitored for a possible
watch this afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/09/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34319031 34799246 35069301 35439313 35679245 35459141
            35499077 35629040 35768947 35678755 35538666 35408633
            34798590 33978658 34018870 34319031
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