[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261731
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-261930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Areas affected...parts of southeast Indiana into central/eastern
Kentucky and southwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261731Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible
through mid afternoon. A conditional threat of severe exists,
contingent on storm intensification. Damaging gusts would be the
primary threat, and a couple of tornadoes would also be possible.
Convective trends will continue to be closely monitored for the need
of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Breaks in widespread cloud cover have allowed for
modest destabilization to take place ahead of an approaching cold
front. Temperatures have been able to warm into the low 70s F, with
mid 60s F dewpoints supporting 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Through morning,
thunderstorms across the OH/TN Valleys have slowly increased in
coverage and intensity per MRMS mosaic radar imagery. These storms
are increasing in number/strengthening in a low-CAPE environment
amid widespread 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Modest directional
shear in the surface-700 mb layer, along with tropospheric speed
shear, are contributing to hodographs characterized by modest
low-level curvature which roughly straighten out through 10 km AGL.
As such, transient supercells and small bowing segments are expected
to be the predominant storm mode.

Given modest low-level shear, at least a few damaging gusts are
possible, particularly with bowing structures. Furthermore, a couple
of tornadoes may occur if more substantial, sustained supercell
structures can develop. Given the overall weak instability present,
the coverage of severe remains in question. Nonetheless, conditions
will continue to be closely monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36708757 39138526 39968400 39828336 39428309 38818279
            38178275 37578300 37198338 36928392 36758445 36638614
            36708757
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet