[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 252204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252203
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-260000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0917
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee and far northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252203Z - 260000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms may produce strong wind gusts over the
next 1-2 hours, but a general weakening trend is expected this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A bowing line of storms continues to move
north/northeast across northern AL and into Middle Tennessee where a
moist air mass remains in place.  MLCAPE is only around 500-750
J/kg, but PWAT is approaching 1.75" which is aiding rejuvenation
along the outflow. Southerly winds at 850 mb around 40 kt may also
be aiding storm speed and outflow.

Objective analysis indicates that storms will eventually near the
eastern gradient of instability, with MLCAPE at or below 250 J/kg
over eastern Middle Tennessee. As such, while an isolated severe
gust may occur in the short term, the threat should diminish 23-00Z.

..Jewell/Grams.. 05/25/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34698734 35078745 35328761 35548781 36108771 36448740
            36688651 36678606 36578573 36198543 35758536 35458553
            34918609 34698667 34578700 34698734
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