[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061704
VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-061830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0673
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Areas affected...far northern GA into eastern TN...western NC...far
western VA and southeast KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 061704Z - 061830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase early this
afternoon. Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Pockets of stronger heating in broken cloudiness, and
surface dewpoints mainly in the mid 60s F (low 60s F into western
NC/VA) are resulting in weak destabilization as of midday. Ongoing
showers and thunderstorms and thicker cloud cover across eastern KY
into VA/WV will slow airmass recovery and does lead to some
uncertainty in northward extent of the severe threat over the next
few hours. Where greater destabilization is occurring ahead of the
surface low (northern GA/eastern TN vicinity), thunderstorm coverage
and intensity is expected to increase over the next couple of hours.
Moderate vertical shear will support organized storm structures,
with clusters and bows being the primary storm mode expected this
afternoon, though a couple of more discrete supercells also will be
possible.

Fast storm motion and cluster/linear-type storm structures will
favor damaging wind potential. However, low-level vorticity will
increase as the surface low develops eastward across KY/TN.
Additionally, increasing wind speeds from the surface through 3 km
will support modestly enlarged low-level hodographs. Where stronger
destabilization can occur, a couple of tornadoes will be possible,
both with any semi-discrete cells or within developing bows/QLCS
structures. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
area in the next hour.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   34488352 34408406 34538466 34658477 35118509 35688508
            36008499 36738455 37168410 37308354 37278292 37128238
            36968211 36698206 36098211 35018270 34488352
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