[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 052156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052156
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-052330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0664
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Thu May 05 2022

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Arkansas into northern
Mississippi into middle Tennessee...southern Kentucky...and far
northwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...183...

Valid 052156Z - 052330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182, 183
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 0182-0183. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary
threats with the stronger, more sustained storms. The severe threat
should persist through sundown, with a gradual weakening trend
expected after dark.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular and transient supercellular storms have
been progressing across southern KY and Middle TN over the past few
hours while a more sustained supercell structure persists across
northern MS. MRMS mosaic radar imagery suggests marginally severe
hail has occasionally occurred with the KY/TN storms as they pulse
in intensity, with a more defined hail streak ongoing with the MS
storm. Across the TN valley, storms are preceded by up to 65F
surface dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km low-level lapse rates,
contributing up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. 21Z mesoanalysis suggests 30-45
kts of effective bulk shear is in place across the TN Valley, driven
by modest speed and directional shear in the 0-3 km layer (as shown
by planar hodograph analysis).

Given the favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment in
place, occasional bouts of severe hail and damaging gusts should
continue with ongoing storms, particularly with the more dominant
storms that can avoid harmful cell mergers. This is especially the
case for the northern MS storm, which remains somewhat discrete.
Damaging gusts may also remain possible with the more linear
convection along the MS river which comprises the northern end of an
organized MCS. The severe threat should persist through sunset.
Thereafter, a gradual weakening trend is likely as the boundary
layer stabilizes, as also suggested by the last several runs of the
HRRR.

..Squitieri.. 05/05/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33329232 35069002 36968722 37348609 37178553 36808534
            36368541 35568579 34788681 34238798 33358967 33329232
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