[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222155
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Areas affected...portions of Southern-Middle Tennessee...extreme
northeast Alabama...extreme northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222155Z - 222330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat may develop with the
approaching squall line across southern-Middle Tennessee if adequate
moisture can arrive on time. A couple of damaging gusts would be the
main threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS with a history of damaging gusts and
tornadoes is approaching portions of southern-Middle Tennessee.
Ahead of the QLCS, temperatures are in the mid-70s F surface
dewpoints, with dewpoints approaching 57 F. At the moment, buoyancy
is scant ahead of the squall, and RAP forecast soundings suggest
that dewpoints need to reach or exceed 59 F before convection can
become sufficiently rooted in the surface-layer to ingest the
abundant low-level streamwise vorticity to otherwise support a more
appreciable severe threat. Latest surface observations have shown up
to 59 F surface dewpoints across Lauderdale County, AL. As such, it
is possible that enough surface-based buoyancy may advect ahead of
the line into far southern-Middle TN to support the potential for a
few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado. Either way, conditions
will continue to be monitored increasing buoyancy into TN and the
need for a possible WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 03/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35908589 35908559 35738464 35478449 35078466 34628504
            34558567 34668617 34958693 35038750 35248782 35638790
            35888767 35948710 35948635 35908589
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