[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062234
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-070100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern AR...western TN...northern
MS...and far northwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 062234Z - 070100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated severe storms may increase across
parts of the Mid-South during the next few hours. Trends will
continue to be monitored this evening.

DISCUSSION...Along the southern periphery of a departing MCS across
parts of the Mid MS Valley, visible satellite imagery shows
northward streaming horizontal convective rolls amid lower 70s
dewpoints and recovering boundary layer air. While the area is now
on the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough, isolated convective
development will be possible along an antecedent outflow boundary
draped across parts of northern MS into far eastern AR. If
convection can develop and mature along this boundary, 30-35 kt
effective bulk shear and clockwise-turning low-level hodographs on
the cool/sheltered side of the outflow boundary could initially
support supercell structures capable of isolated large hail, locally
damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two with the more organized
storms. Considering the weak large-scale forcing for ascent in
place, large uncertainty remains, and trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 06/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34058949 34009093 34299142 34829163 35299171 35659154
            35729126 35739091 35769046 35768985 35788940 35818877
            35878811 35558771 34678770 34188845 34058949
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