[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261818
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-262015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri into
Southwest Kentucky and northwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261818Z - 262015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along an outflow boundary may
pose a damaging wind risk this afternoon, but a watch is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along an outflow
boundary draped from southern KY into far southeast MO. These storms
are maturing in a favorable thermodynamic environment with MLCAPE
estimates up to 2500-3000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis and forecast
soundings. Recent satellite trends hint at the ample buoyancy with a
few stronger updrafts featuring rapid cloud-top cooling and
cloud-top heights reaching up to near 45kft. Regional VWPs are
sampling mid-level winds generally near 30 knots, which is yielding
effective bulk shear estimates between 30-35 knots. This is adequate
for supporting organized convection, but storm motions along and/or
behind the outflow boundary will tend to favor storm interactions
and upscale growth with time. This will act as a limiting factor
given the weak boundary-orthogonal mean flow. Thunderstorms will
likely pose a damaging wind threat through the afternoon, but
confidence in the coverage and duration of a more organized severe
threat remains too limited for watch issuance.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/26/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36949239 37069157 36808835 37128624 36718524 35928513
            35528555 35268635 35248816 35219007 35379173 35789252
            36279271 36949239
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