[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202233
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2022

Areas affected...portions of the lower Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202233Z - 210000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms developing on a front/confluence zone may pose a
risk for damaging wind gusts as they drift east/southeast this
evening. The severe risk is unclear but a weather watch is possible

DISCUSSION...As of 2225 UTC, isolated storms were developing within
a pre-frontal confluence zone across southwestern IN and far
southern IL. Driven mostly by strong daytime heating and weak low
level convergence near the advancing cold front, additional
development within the warm moist and mostly uncapped airmass is
possible this evening. Robust buoyancy (3500-5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) is
present from SPC mesoanalysis supporting the potential for stronger
updrafts. 30-35 kt of vertical shear from area VAD/VWPs will also be
sufficient for some storm organization into clusters or small bowing
segments. The primary uncertainty remains the amount of storm
coverage and attendant severe risk. Hi-res guidance does show some
potential for scattered storms by early early evening which would
likely include a greater risk for damaging winds. While substantial
uncertainty remains, a weather watch is being considered for
portions of western KY, southern IN and extreme southern IL.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 07/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37368597 37008653 36858693 36648747 36548892 36708919
            36968928 37488847 37818803 38178728 38358670 38508617
            38218577 37858569 37488589 37368597
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet