[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 011838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011838
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-012015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...Central KY...Middle TN...Northern AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

Valid 011838Z - 012015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gust and tornadoes continues
across central KY and middle TN within Tornado Watch 3. This threat
will persist downstream into more of central KY, middle TN, and
northern AL, where a watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Recent observations place the outflow boundary from
about 20 miles south of LEX southwestward to just southeast of BWG,
continuing southeastward through western TN to about 20 miles
southeast of MEM. Numerous shallow but strong/organized cells have
developed along this outflow boundary and lightning has become
slightly more frequent over the last hour. General trend with the
stronger storms developing within the line is for an initially
cell-in-line structure with a strong, more organized updraft. This
more cellular structure then relatively quickly trends towards
bowing line segments as the outflow boundary continues pushing
southeastward. As such, a relatively brief period for tornadogenesis
exists before the storms then transition to more of a damaging wind
threat. Initial, more discrete development has also occurred
sporadically ahead of the line, with a longer duration of more
cellular structure contributing to a slightly greater tornado risk.
These storms also trend towards bowing line segments as the outflow
overtakes them.

This overall pattern is expected to continue for at least the next
few hours as the outflow pushes quickly eastward/southeastward.
Current motion places the outflow near the edge of Tornado Watch 3
by 1930Z-2000Z. Winds are currently a bit more veered downstream,
but vertical shear remains very strong. As such, supercells capable
of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes remain possible and a
downstream watch will likely be needed.

..Mosier/Grams.. 01/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35518803 37678460 37948362 37398336 35868422 34328628
            34558806 35518803
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