[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222103
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

Areas affected...Southwest TN...Southern Middle TN...Northeast
MS...Far Northwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222103Z - 222300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across southwest
and southern middle TN, northeast MS, and far northwest AL over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar trends have recently shown some intensification
of a few cells over far northwest MS and far southwest TN. This
intensification appears to be due to interaction between these cells
and the outflow associated storms that moved through middle TN
earlier. Deep-layer vertical shear remains strong over the region,
with mesoanalysis estimating over 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear. This
strong mid to upper flow is also promoting fast storm motion, with
recent storm motion estimated at 50 kt. In contrast, buoyancy is
modest, tempered by poor lapse rates and limited diurnal heating.

This modest buoyancy is expected to limit updraft strength and
persistence. However, interaction with the outflow could augment
updrafts, resulting in occasionally strong updrafts. Any of these
strong updrafts should also promote strong downdrafts, which given
the strong flow aloft in place, could produce damaging wind gusts.
Only isolated damaging wind gusts are currently anticipated, but
trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 02/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35028961 35528888 35828770 35598736 34988746 34568772
            34348848 34289010 35028961

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