[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030821
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CST Thu Feb 03 2022

Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas...southeastern
Missouri...western Tennessee...southern Illinois...southern
Indiana...northern and western Kentucky...and southwestern Ohio

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 030821Z - 031415Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain -- falling at rates in excess of 0.05" to
0.10" per hour at times -- will occur in a narrow zone north of the
surface cold front from northeastern Arkansas northeastward to
southwestern Ohio.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows precipitation coverage
expanding and across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley area this
morning.  This is occurring as low-level warm
advection/quasi-geostrophic ascent increase ahead of the slowly
advancing upper system, aided by progression of smaller-scale
perturbations atop the region within the broader southwesterlies
aloft.

Within a narrow zone between snowfall that is ongoing across the
Ozarks and into central Illinois/central Indiana, and rain that is
falling across much of the Tennessee and upper Ohio Valleys, mixed
wintry precipitation, largely in the form of freezing rain -- is
indicated.  As the precipitation coverage within this zone continues
to increase, heavier precipitation rates will become more
consistent/widespread, with rates locally in excess of 0.10" per
hour expected through mid morning.

..Goss.. 02/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON   39298320 37998591 36778792 35318953 34849100 35699226
            36969082 37818906 38678817 39628575 40258397 39828289
            39298320
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