[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 030657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030656
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Areas affected...far northern Mississippi into southwestern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 030656Z - 030930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of severe risk, including damaging gusts or a
brief tornado, may develop along the Mississippi/Tennessee border.
It is uncertain whether coverage of severe will warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and storms currently extend eastward
along the MS/TN border, with a recent uptick in intensity and
organization just south of Memphis TN. While winds just off the
surface have veered on the immediate back side of the upper trough,
shear remains strong and instability remains sufficient to sustain
severe storms. VWPs still indicate 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 SRH, along with
40 kt effective shear.

The northwest MS cluster is ingesting upper 60s F dewpoints, and
south/southwest low-level mean winds will aid advection of moisture,
eventually into TN. This will result in MLCAPE on the order of
750-1000 J/kg. Thus, given current radar trends, a narrow zone of
severe wind/QLCS tornado threat may extend east of the developing
line of storms. Trends will continue to be monitored for any upscale
growth.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 05/03/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35149000 35538803 35478764 35268749 34978756 34898780
            34808855 34688941 34678994 34779014 34899011 35149000
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