[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 251933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251933
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...The mid-Mississippi River Valley and lower Ohio
River Valley Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 251933Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely in the coming hours as a surface
low and associated warm front continue to lift northward through the
late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past couple of hours have
shown 2-3 mb surface pressure falls over northeast AR into the lower
OH River Valley region. The surface low located over northeast AR
continues to consolidate and is expected to deepen further as it
lifts to the north/northeast. As this occurs, an associated surface
warm front will lift to the north and allow a higher theta-e air
mass (noted by temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s) to overspread
the mid-MS River Valley and lower OH River Valley regions and allow
MLCAPE to increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Storms are forecast
to develop along the surface warm front and surface trough in the
vicinity of the low, and southwesterly 60-70 knots of effective bulk
shear will help support discrete to semi-discrete storm modes. Along
with a hail/wind threat, backed low-level winds within the open warm
sector will support ESRH values on the order of 300 m2/s2 and a
tornado threat with any discrete convection that can develop. Recent
guidance suggests storm initiation within this region may occur
within the 22-00 UTC time frame. A tornado watch will likely be
needed in the coming hours to address this concern.

..Moore/Hart.. 03/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   36498774 36148863 35988936 36238974 36718989 37438983
            38008958 38438912 38778824 38788726 38348672 37528679
            37008706 36498774
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